RICHMOND — Vice President Kamala Harris leads former president Donald Trump among likely Virginia voters by eight percentage points, powered by an 18-point advantage among women and by a sense of unity among Democrats, according to a Washington Post-Schar School poll.
Harris’s lead is more than double the poll’s margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, although other polls have shown a tighter race. Before Biden dropped out, other Virginia polls showed a dead heat, and Trump and Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) have campaigned on the idea that the purple state could tilt red. A Roanoke College poll last month found Harris with only a three-point edge, within that poll’s margin of error.
“Most notable not only is the size of Harris’s lead but that Trump does not have any issue advantage, unlike national polls in which he enjoys some advantage on the economy, immigration and fighting crime,” Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, said of the poll results. “Trump’s path to the presidency therefore does not run through Virginia.”
Virginia voters are nearly split on which presidential candidate they trust more to handle a variety of issues, but Harris enjoys double-digit leads when it comes to abortion and health care. Trump does not have a significant lead on any issue measured in this survey.
Trump is net unpopular with Virginia voters; 53 percent of them have an unfavorable impression of the former president while 39 percent are favorable.
Harris enjoys net favorable ratings, with 49 percent favorable and 42 percent unfavorable. Her popularity in Virginia is higher than Biden’s, reflecting the broader enthusiasm around the Democratic Party ticket that emerged after he chose to step down.
Biden has a narrowly net-negative approval rating in the state, according to the poll. Fifty percent of voters disapprove of his presidency, and 46 percent approve. Biden’s strong disapproval rating (42 percent) far outweighs his strong approval rating (28 percent).
The poll indicates that Virginia Democrats have united behind Harris, with 96 percent of likely Democratic voters saying they’ll support her compared with 88 percent of Republican likely voters who support Trump. Nine percent of Virginia Republicans support Harris. Among independents, 47 percent back Harris while 42 percent support Trump.
Women are especially strong in their support for Harris, with 55 percent saying they will vote for her, compared with 37 percent for Trump. Male voters give Trump a five-point edge, at 48 percent to 43 percent.
In terms of geography, Harris’s support is strongest in the close-in D.C. suburbs (60 percent), Northern Virginia exurbs (56 percent) and in the Richmond area (55 percent). Trump’s support is strongest in the more rural central and western parts of Virginia (60 percent). The Tidewater region tips toward Harris at 49 percent vs. 42 percent for Trump.
Harris also performs well in Virginia among Black likely voters, who favor her over Trump by 73 percent to 12 percent. White likely voters prefer Trump, at 50 percent to 43 percent for Harris. Among White likely voters with a college degree, though, support swings heavily to Harris at 57 percent compared with 36 percent for Trump. White voters without college degrees support Trump 64 percent to 29 percent.
In the other statewide race on the ballot this fall, incumbent Sen. Tim Kaine (D) has a comfortable margin over his Republican opponent, Hung Cao. He outperforms Harris to lead Cao by 12 points among likely voters, at 53 percent to 41 percent.
Over half of Virginia voters say the economy is “extremely important” to their vote this fall. They are roughly split on which presidential candidate they trust more to handle the issue (47 percent say Harris and 43 percent say Trump, within the poll’s margin of error). In national polls, Trump has generally led Harris on this question.
Even so, a larger share of Virginia voters support moving up to 100,000 federal government jobs from the Washington region to other parts of the country — a plan that Trump has advanced and that economists say could shake the state’s economy. Forty-two percent support such a move and 33 percent oppose it.
Opposition is higher in the D.C. suburbs at 43 percent, but a still-sizable 34 percent support the plan in that region of the state, where federal jobs are most concentrated. More than a quarter of those surveyed statewide skipped the question or volunteered “no opinion.”
Most Virginia voters rate the nation’s economy negatively, with 60 percent saying it is “not so good” or “poor” and 38 percent rating it “excellent” or “good.” But about 7 in 10 rate their personal financial situation either excellent or good, while 29 percent say it is not so good or poor.
More than 4 in 10 Virginia voters say crime and safety (45 percent) and health care (43 percent) are extremely important to their vote. While voters are about split on whom they trust more to handle crime, Harris enjoys a 10-point lead over Trump on health care (48 percent to 38 percent).
Nearly 4 in 10 Virginia voters say abortion is extremely important to their vote (37 percent), and they trust Harris by a 22-point margin, 52 percent to 30 percent. Women are more likely to say abortion is extremely important (45 percent) than men (28 percent), but both men and women trust Harris over Trump to handle abortion by almost identical margins.
About two-thirds of Virginia voters say abortion should be legal in most or all cases (65 percent), but 28 percent say it should be illegal in most or all cases. Just 6 percent say it should be illegal in all cases. About a third of Virginia voters (34 percent) say immigration is extremely important to their vote; they are split on who they trust more.
On the question of protecting democracy, voters narrowly trust Harris more on this issue, 48 percent to 42 percent — with 7 percent trusting neither candidate.
Virginia voters are overwhelmingly confident that votes in the commonwealth will be counted accurately, with 82 percent “very” or “somewhat” confident. Majorities of Democrats (91 percent) and independents (85 percent) and a smaller majority of Republicans (69 percent) say they are confident.
Youngkin, Virginia’s Republican governor, gets high marks from voters, with 57 percent approving of the job he is doing and 34 percent disapproving — his best ratings in Post-Schar School polling since taking office in January 2022. His strong approval (30 percent) outweighs his strong disapproval (20 percent).
Most Virginia voters (64 percent) say Youngkin’s ideas and policies are similar to Trump’s, including 25 percent who say they are “very similar.” Those perceptions have not shifted a great deal, even as Youngkin’s stance toward Trump has changed significantly over time.
Some 71 percent of voters thought Youngkin’s ideas and policies were similar to Trump’s in 2021, as Youngkin ran for the Executive Mansion while keeping Trump at arm’s length. After flirting with a 2024 presidential bid for the first two years of his governorship, Youngkin went all in for Trump this summer, giving the former president his full-throated endorsement at a rally in Chesapeake and at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.
In Virginia’s U.S. Senate race, 98 percent of Democrats support Kaine while a smaller (86 percent) majority of Republicans support Cao, with Kaine’s strongest support coming in the D.C. suburbs and Cao doing better in the central and western portions of the state. Ten percent of Republicans support Kaine, and he leads Cao among independent voters. Independents lean toward Kaine, 52 percent to 41 percent. Among Black likely voters, 79 percent support Kaine, while White voters split nearly evenly between Cao (49 percent) and Kaine (46 percent).
Voter enthusiasm runs high across the board. About 9 in 10 Virginia registered voters say they are absolutely certain to vote this November, including roughly even shares of Republicans and Democrats. Of registered voters who plan to vote, 54 percent say they will do so on Election Day, while 40 percent plan to vote early, either by mail or in person. That marks a modest rebound for in-person voting compared with October 2020, when 46 percent planned to vote on Election Day.
This poll was conducted by The Post and George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government, Sept. 4-8 among a random sample of 1,005 registered voters in Virginia drawn from a statewide voter database. Live caller interviews reached respondents on cellphones and landlines; other respondents were reached via text message and invited to take the survey online. The overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for both registered voters and likely voters; all registered voters were assigned a probability of voting to produce likely voter results.”
Clement and Guskin reported from Washington.
