Sure, even with Tuesday night’s 12-0 lambasting at the hands of the Atlanta Braves, the Washington Nationals won the season series from the six-time reigning National League East champs — regardless of what happens in Wednesday’s final matchup between the teams. Yes, the Nationals are fielding a lineup replete with the core of what might be a contender — soon. And yeah, there’s more reason to buy your season tickets for next season. Some help has already arrived. More may be on the way. What fun.
Column by Barry Svrluga
Don’t be fooled. The standings right now say the Philadelphia Phillies are the class of the division. The standings right now say the New York Mets and the Braves are in a flat-footed tie for the NL’s final wild-card spot.
Logic — and money — say those teams aren’t going anywhere.
The Nationals may well head into this offseason believing they’re on the ascent — with reason. Opposing coaches and executives I’ve talked to in recent weeks believe the same. One argued that no team in the sport can match the trio of CJ Abrams, Dylan Crews and James Wood for young, dynamic upside. Another touted Wood as the game’s next megastar. Another said simply, “They could be really, really good.”
All three followed with some version of the same question: Are they going to spend?
For September 2025 to involve a pennant race in Washington, it will take more than just the natural maturation of the above-mentioned position-player core — not to mention the same for pitchers MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, DJ Herz, Josiah Gray and so on.
It will take money. Lots of it.
Because the Nationals’ core is young, the Nationals’ core is cheap. For the Lerner family, which owns the club, that fact could be soothing. What it should be is a call to action. If the Nats are going to compete in the standings, they’re going to have to at least try to compete financially. Look around the division.
The Mets, Phillies and Braves — teams fighting to play deep into October — rank first, fourth and sixth in 2024 payroll, according to Spotrac. What’s scary: In terms of commitments on the books for next year, the Mets fall to 10th.
Think owner Steve Cohen is just going to sit there idly, twiddling his thumbs while he’s $100 million below the competitive balance tax threshold — the benchmark for 2025 set at $241 million, over which teams will be taxed? Uh, no. Cohen has enough to sign Juan Soto — and more. (Note to Nats: Begin work on that Soto offer posthaste. The nine-figure offer should start with a 5.)
Sure, some of the $316 million in the Mets’ 2024 payroll is wasted. In the summer of 2023, the then-flailing club traded pitchers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer — but is still paying them more than $45 million combined. That stings.
But lots of this year’s payroll was spent wisely: The massive 10-year, $341 million extension for shortstop Francisco Lindor, an MVP candidate, now looks reasonable. An eight-year, $162 million deal for outfielder Brandon Nimmo likely made the franchise mainstay a Met for life. Smart, short-term free agent signings of starters Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana — totaling just $40.5 million for this season — are low-risk and, in Manaea’s case particularly, high-reward.
Travel down the New Jersey Turnpike to Philadelphia, where the Phillies — who reached the past two NL Championship Series — have greater designs this October. The $247.1 million they spent on payroll — $10 million over this year’s tax threshold — wasn’t wasted.
Ranked by wins above replacement, according to Baseball Reference, Philadelphia’s top three players have been pitcher Zack Wheeler, first baseman Bryce Harper and designated hitter Kyle Schwarber. Their contracts, respectively: five years, $118 million with a three-year, $126 million extension that kicks in next season; 13 years, $330 million; and four years, $79 million.
The combination of John Middleton, a free-spending owner who rankles his peers by bragging about spending “stupid money,” and Dave Dombrowski, a general manager who has a long history of lavishly doling out his owners’ cash, is financially formidable. Six Phillies — Wheeler, Harper, shortstop Trea Turner, pitcher Aaron Nola, catcher J.T. Realmuto and outfielder Nick Castellanos — have contracts worth at least $100 million.
The Phillies’ championship-contending window will, at some point, close. That point is not soon.
Oh, and the Braves. Spencer Strider, their best pitcher, was lost to elbow surgery in April. Their best player, 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., was lost to knee surgery in May. Second baseman Ozzie Albies is out with a fractured wrist. Third baseman Austin Riley is out with a fractured hand.
Yet the beat-up Braves are hanging in the hunt for the playoffs, where they have been every year since 2018 and where they figure to be next year and beyond. Whatever happens over the season’s final 2½ weeks, Atlanta has the following players locked up at least through 2027 (should it, in some cases, exercise team options): Riley, Albies, Acuña, Strider, first baseman Matt Olson, catcher Sean Murphy, outfielder Michael Harris II and pitcher Reynaldo López.
But the Braves haven’t just spent to keep their own. Two of their best players this year — DH Marcell Ozuna and closer Raisel Iglesias — were free agents signed to four-year deals worth a total of $123 million. Chris Sale, the rejuvenated lefty who has been their best pitcher, signed a two-year, $38 million deal after being acquired in an offseason trade with Boston.
Add it up, and it’s a $236.5 million payroll — or more than $130 million above the Nats’.
(Worth mentioning: The Miami Marlins also play in the NL East. Seems like a professional responsibility to note that. Moving on.)
Who’s betting on the Braves to roll over for the upward-trajectory Nats? Or the Mets? Or the Phillies? (Related: This year’s Nats are 2-8 against the Mets and 2-8 against the Phillies.)
Remember when the Nats contended annually? Seems like forever ago. They did so with so much homegrown talent. But they also added to that and competed with their checkbooks. From 2012 to 2019, an eight-year stretch during which they won four division titles and a wild-card berth, Washington’s ranks in payroll were 16, 11, 8, 5, 15, 6, 5 and 7. This year: 24. Next year’s commitments, before arbitration-eligible players have their salaries determined: 29.
Seems like a correlation, doesn’t it?
The three teams above Washington in the NL East aren’t going away, in baseball talent or financial clout. That means the coming offseason isn’t a time for the Nats to sit still and hope their current core improves. It should be an offseason entered with an aggressive plan to augment that talented young group. Failing to do so wouldn’t merely be indifference. Failing to do so would be malpractice.
