BALTIMORE — In the years after Mike Elias took over as general manager following the 2018 season, the Baltimore Orioles adhered diligently to the ideal rebuild script with uncommon diligence.
They used those draft picks to select elite talent that did not disappoint, so much so that their farm system evolved into a laughably potent collection of seeming future stars.
They called up the first of them, burst into contention in 2022, won the toughest division in baseball in 2023 and began 2024 with an exuberant new owner and all the promise of a wide-open window of contention. Their evolution was steady and uninterrupted, their ascent so rhythmic in its year-to-year progress that even baseball’s penchant for cacophony seemed unable to disrupt their carefully crafted tune.
But reality halted the metronome sometime in the past few months, leaving an aspiring dynasty limping toward October — the time when these Orioles were supposed to make their next great leap. Injuries, unexpected underperformance and a constant stream of uncomfortable roster decisions have turned the later months of this season into a test of the one thing the numbers and coaching and calculation could not prognosticate: The mettle of a young core bred to win is both at risk of missing its 2024 opportunity and, after being deadlocked with the New York Yankees atop the American League East for months, still in position to seize it.
“I give our guys a ton of credit for kind of hanging in there,” Manager Brandon Hyde said. “There’s been a lot of times where a team could lose seven out of eight games or seven out of nine because things aren’t going really well, and our guys have hung in there.”
Injuries are a universal affliction. The Los Angeles Dodgers, among many others, watched sky-high expectations tumble earthward under the weight of aching elbows. The Orioles entered 2024 without elite closer Félix Bautista after he underwent Tommy John surgery last fall. Then they lost starters Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells to elbow surgeries this spring. Starter Dean Kremer and relievers Danny Coulombe, Jacob Webb and Cionel Pérez were all out for lengthy stretches. Starter Grayson Rodriguez missed a few weeks with shoulder trouble earlier this season and has been back on the injured list with shoulder trouble since early August.
And somehow, despite that stockpile of offensive talent honed by years of spending top draft picks on top players, even their position-playing depth has been tested. Infielder Jorge Mateo suffered a gruesome arm injury that eventually required elbow surgery. Outfielder Heston Kjerstad is out with a concussion after being hit in the head with a pitch. Infielder Jordan Westburg, who had established himself as a steady and clutch producer in his first full season as a starter, broke his wrist when he was hit with one, too.
“This year, things have changed. Guys have changed roles in the bullpen. We’ve lost starting pitchers and had to call more guys up. We have some young players out there. We’ve just had more injuries this year,” Hyde said. “It’s been more challenging, honestly. I’m trying to stay patient and positive.”
While injuries are not unique to the Orioles’ experience, they are a frustrating new part of it. Until Bautista suffered his injury late last season, Baltimore had stayed relatively healthy since May 2022, when catcher Adley Rutschman’s call-up began a stretch of winning that has never totally abated. But the injuries have made the unfamiliar struggles of key Orioles more glaring.
Rutschman, for example, is enduring the first prolonged slump of a career that — like those of shortstop Gunnar Henderson and other Orioles prospects in recent years — at times seemed so charmed that it might never include one. The 26-year-old keystone of the new-look Orioles entered Tuesday hitting .204 with a .585 OPS in the second half, numbers so out of line with his career norms (.263, .780) that he has repeatedly had to answer questions about whether he is fully healthy.
Rutschman and the Orioles insist he is, that the trouble is just a slump unlike any he has seen in his professional career. Either way, the Orioles have been without the switch-hitting staple who has keyed their rise for years, settling for a shadow of him and hoping he will rediscover his shine.
Corbin Burnes, the ace for whom the Orioles finally parted with some of those beloved prospects, has not looked like himself in the second half, either. Burnes was dominant in a storybook first half that ended with his wife giving birth to twins and a flight to Texas to start the All-Star Game for the American League. But since that week, he has been uncharacteristically mediocre, posting a 4.76 ERA and allowing early leads to slip away when the Orioles desperately needed to keep games out of the hands of a bullpen in flux.
Burnes has looked better so far this month, and indeed a return to form in time for October could be all the Orioles need to advance past last year’s division series peak. He will be a free agent after this season. This might be their last chance to enter the postseason with him as their true, proven ace.
They will not enter October with a true, proven closer because the man they paid handsomely (by their standards) to fill that role is not pitching well enough to keep it. Craig Kimbrel is struggling so mightily that the Orioles have turned to Yennier Cano and trade deadline acquisition Seranthony Domínguez as their late-inning firepower in his stead. Kimbrel is pitching to a 7.71 ERA in the second half entering Tuesday, rendering his postseason role unclear. And while the Orioles traded for Domínguez to help in the later innings, they did not acquire a proven closer at the deadline — another example of how this Orioles season has been more complicated than the halcyon days of 2022 and 2023.
This year, the tough decisions became unavoidable. In the offseason, for example, the Orioles had to part with Joey Ortiz and DL Hall, highly regarded prospects, to get the ace they needed in Burnes. They made the decision to part with Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers in a deadline deal for starter Trevor Rogers that has not yet yielded much big league reward. They had to choose between rebuild survivor Austin Hays, who had been outspoken about wanting to stay an Oriole, and creating room for younger players such as Colton Cowser and Kjerstad, ultimately sending Hays to Philadelphia for Domínguez. They had to pull up pitchers from Class AAA to fill injury holes, then send them down again, creating revolving doors and forcing them to choose between fresh arms in the big leagues and designating pitchers — such as longtime homegrown options Mike Baumann and Dillon Tate — for assignment without getting the most out of them.
The result is a totally different clubhouse from the one that began the season. Last week, there were 11 players on the Orioles’ roster who were not in the organization to start the season, a relative culture shock for a group built on so much homegrown talent that its clubhouse seemed more like a well-behaved fraternity than a major league baseball team. The Orioles thought they knew what they could be. What they have become is something that looks very different.
“They’re showing some toughness,” Hyde said. “I think our guys have learned a lot this year also. They’ve dealt with adversity they’ve never had to deal with before.”
Indeed, somehow, the Orioles entered Tuesday just 1½ games behind the flawed Yankees in the AL East. They have reason to believe this could still be their year to break through in October. Rodriguez threw a bullpen session last week and might have just enough time to build up strength ahead of a potential Game 2 start behind Burnes. Coulombe and Webb are throwing off the mound again. Westburg is starting to throw, too, and could feasibly find his way back to the lineup before October.
“I don’t think anyone wants to face us, especially when everybody is back and moving at full gear,” Rodriguez said. “I think everybody is confident in that.”
Maybe, in hindsight, adversity will look like the natural next chapter in the growth of this promising Orioles generation. Maybe, somehow, learning how to be something other than their best is actually part of their scripted maturation, not a departure from it. Growing pains, after all, only happen when there is growth.
