Only 11 Republican-held seats are up for election in November. If Republicans win those races as expected and flip just one state, the Senate will be tied 50-50 with deciding votes made by the new vice president. If they flip two seats, Republicans will win back Senate control no matter who is in the White House.
Hundreds of millions of dollars in advertising are flooding into the Senate races of Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania in particular, with many GOP challengers tying Democrats to what they call the Biden-Harris administration’s failures on the southern border and the economy. Senate Democrats are, for the most part, running hyperlocal races focused on the money they’ve brought home to their states for infrastructure and other projects, and attacking their relatively politically inexperienced challengers on a variety of fronts, including the great personal wealth many of them have accumulated in the private sector.
Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) has said the GOP candidates are not of the highest caliber, while Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has projected confidence about his party’s chances of taking back the chamber.
“I think that this is the best map I’ve seen in a long time,” McConnell told The Washington Post earlier this year.
Arizona
In Arizona, the retirement of Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) has left a wide open seat that both Democrats and Republicans are scrambling to win in the swing state that only recently begun voting blue in presidential elections.
Rep. Ruben Gallego (D), a Marine Corps veteran, is facing off against Kari Lake (R), a former newscaster who unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2022. Lake, a close ally of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s, has engaged in a lengthy legal battle to try to overturn her earlier loss, and is criticizing Gallego as a far-left radical. Gallego has slammed Lake for continuing to falsely claim the 2022 election was stolen and for her past support for banning abortion.
The race is likely to be decided by the state’s large portion of independent voters, who have previously rewarded candidates with a maverick streak, such as Sinema and the late Sen. John McCain (R). This fall, an abortion-related referendum will also be on the state ballot, which could boost Gallego.
Michigan
Another wide open Senate seat vacated by Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow pits Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman, Army officer and FBI special agent, against Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) in the “blue wall” battleground state that Trump won in 2016 but Joe Biden carried in 2020.
Rogers, once a vocal Trump critic, has heaped praise on the former president and won his endorsement in the primary. He’s hitting Slotkin, a former national security official under both Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, primarily on inflation and the southern border, saying she is part of a “Biden-Harris-Slotkin” regime. Slotkin is painting Rogers as a carpetbagger beholden to special interests who sold his house in Michigan after he left Congress nearly a decade ago.
Given neither candidate is very well known statewide, their fates are more tied to how Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump perform in the battleground state than some other Senate candidates in key states.
Montana
The last statewide elected Democrat in Montana, Jon Tester, is fighting for his political life in a race against wealthy businessman and ex-Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy. Trump has made clear he is taking the Senate race in this deep-red state personally, campaigning for Sheehy in August at a packed rally where he mocked Tester’s weight. Republicans say this race may end up being their key to taking back the Senate.
Tester, a third-generation Montanan dirt farmer, has argued Sheehy is a relative newcomer to the state who favors selling off public lands and can’t relate to average Montanans because of his wealth. He’s fended off Republican challengers in the past with similar arguments, despite his state’s double-digit preference for Trump over Biden in 2020. Sheehy has painted Tester as voting in lockstep with Democrats and out of step with the state on immigration and other issues.
Nevada
Sen. Jacky Rosen is seeking a second term as she faces off against Sam Brown, a decorated Army veteran who nearly lost his life in 2008 in Afghanistan after he was severely burned when a bomb exploded and left him badly scarred. The first-term senator is painting Brown as an extremist on abortion in sheep’s clothing. Brown says he would not support a federal abortion ban, and he and his wife shared her personal story of having an abortion as a young woman. But in a past race, Brown’s campaign said he supported banning the procedure except in the case of a mother’s life being at risk. Meanwhile, Brown has said Rosen, who is Jewish and pro-Israel, did not stand up to people in her own party who have criticized Israel in its war in Gaza.
Ohio
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is seeking to defy political gravity once again as he faces off against wealthy businessman and former car dealer Bernie Moreno in this former swing state that backed Trump in 2016 and 2020. Brown is casting Moreno as a wealthy businessman who is out for himself, and Moreno slams Brown as a career politician who is a rubber stamp for President Joe Biden and Harris.
Brown is touting some of his legislative achievements, including a bill to invest in U.S. chip manufacturing and another providing infrastructure funding, while also distancing himself from Biden and Harris. The third-term senator often touts his bipartisan work with Sen. JD Vance, Trump’s running mate.
Pennsylvania
Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) is asking voters to send him back to Washington for a fourth term, as former hedge fund CEO Dave McCormick attacks him as a career politician who supports Harris’s past liberal policies on immigration and fracking.
McCormick is fending off his own set of criticisms that he is a “carpetbagger” who still frequently travels to Connecticut — where his daughters live — and for his business ties to China. McCormick, who was a top Republican recruit, has funded his campaign with his own money and so far has trailed Casey in polls.
West Virginia
GOP West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice is almost certain to cruise to victory in this red state against Democrat Glenn Elliott, the former mayor of Wheeling, following Manchin’s retirement. Manchin, a Democrat who recently registered as an independent, had managed to win Senate elections in the state through his deep connection to voters and independent reputation.
Wisconsin
Two-term Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) is seeking to defend her seat from Eric Hovde, a bank CEO and real estate titan who’s poured millions of dollars of his own money into the race so far. Baldwin, the first openly gay person to serve in the Senate, has suggested Hovde is out of touch with the state given his wealth and that he splits his time between there and California. Hovde, who so far has trailed Baldwin in polls, casts his wealth as a positive that will lend him independence from special interests in Washington.
Long shot states
Democrats are holding out hope they could flip two long shot Senate seats in the red states of Texas and Florida, where Republican incumbents Sens. Ted Cruz and Rick Scott are seeking reelection. Rep. Colin Allred (D-Tex.) has taken a page from Republicans’ playbook and attacked Cruz for not securing the southern border, while also airing positive ads about his past as a professional football player who works on a team with Republicans to pass legislation. Former congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who would be the first Latina senator from Florida if elected, is criticizing Scott for contributing to an affordability crisis in the state. Both Republicans are countering that their opponents are too liberal for their states.
In Maryland, Republicans are hoping that their stellar recruit, former GOP Gov. Larry Hogan, can attract enough votes in the deep-blue state to capture a Senate seat. Hogan, a moderate who was popular as governor, has emphasized he would support abortion rights and has distanced himself from a Trump endorsement. He still faces a tough road to defeat Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, who would become the first Black senator from Maryland if she wins, and who attracted a slew of endorsements from political leaders around the state.
Source: Election results are from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab. Note: Third-party candidates are not shown. Photos from U.S. Congress, Joshua Lott/The Washington Post, AP, The Intelligencer/AP and Getty Images.
