LIMA, PERU, APRIL 6 -- An unlikely phenomenon has emerged in the waning days of Peru's presidential campaign: A soft-spoken academic named Alberto Fujimori, who has practically no party organization and even less of a defined platform, is apparently gaining ground so quickly that pollsters now give him a chance at a runoff berth against novelist Mario Vargas Llosa.
By Eugene Robinson
The son of Japanese immigrants, Fujimori, 51, had only single-digit support a month ago. But today, three respected polling firms predicted that he will finish no worse than third in Sunday's election, behind Vargas Llosa and Luis Alva Castro of the ruling APRA party, and said that if trends continue he may beat out Alva Castro for second.
The rise of "The Japanese," as Fujimori is called, illustrates the extreme volatility of an electorate that wants nothing to do with conventional politicians widely seen as having failed Peru.
"We are seeing changes in the polls of two points a day," said Manuel Saavedra of the polling firm CPI, which predicts a Vargas Llosa-Fujimori runoff. "This is a totally atypical phenomenon. It is incredibly difficult to predict."
Vargas Llosa's supporters have charged angrily that the Fujimori boom has been engineered by President Alan Garcia in an attempt to deny Vargas Llosa the absolute majority he needs to avoid a runoff. But Saavedra said that while the novelist's support is falling, Fujimori seems to be "taking votes from everyone." With his proposed program still largely undefined, Fujimori has become a screen on which voters can project their own hopes and fears.
He promises a break with the policies of Garcia's administration, which today he called "disastrous." He promises to restart the nearly dormant economy, but declines to say what specific measures he will take. He promises to end Peru's soaring inflation, but without the harsh adjustments that Vargas Llosa preaches.
"We are of the center," Fujimori told reporters today, describing his fledgling movement, called Cambio (Change) 90. "We defend private enterprise, but at the same time we are going to preserve some state businesses."
Concrete proposals? "I have them, but I will announce them at the proper time."
Fujimori is a former rector of La Molina Agrarian University and a former president of the national association of university rectors. He said he put together his Cambio 90 coalition of independents last year, and said he is not hampered by the fact that the coalition has little organization and faces dismal prospects of gaining a substantial presence in the congress on Sunday.
The polling firm Apoyo puts him comfortably in second place, with 21 percent to Vargas Llosa's 37 percent. CPI gives him even greater support, around 24 percent. The firm Datum said its most recent comprehensive survey still showed Fujimori well behind Alva Castro, but added that the trend toward Fujimori is such that he stands a good chance of overtaking the APRA leader and finishing second.
APRA, however, is a well-organized party that will get its people to the polls Sunday and make sure they mark their ballots correctly. And Fujimori's apparent support has materialized so quickly that no one can be sure it will not disappear just as quickly or that it is not somehow a grand illusion.
The most recent poll results are not known in Peru because of a prohibition against publishing election surveys in the last two weeks before the election. But the pollsters shared their findings today with foreign journalists.
Fujimori's apparent rise recalls the experience last November of Ricardo Belmont, a charismatic outsider who made his political debut by running for mayor of Lima -- and won in a landslide. Belmont, too, is an independent with no links to the established parties.
Vargas Llosa had that kind of appeal, but has been losing it as the campaign progresses. His campaign has spent the past week trumpeting a last-minute endorsement from Belmont in an attempt to stem his slide in metropolitan Lima.
Fujimori delivers his message in simple generalities and images. When talking about poverty, he says that half the nation's children are malnourished. When talking about the need to reactivate idle productive capacity, he notes that Peru has some of the richest mines and fishing grounds in the world.
One factor in his new popularity appears to be his Japanese heritage. Alfredo Torres of the Apoyo firm noted that surveys show Peruvians have a high regard for the Japanese, and also see Japan as a possible source of foreign aid. Fujimori has encouraged the perception that he would somehow have an inside track in winning Japanese investment.
Most likely to support him, the pollsters said, are young city dwellers with no historic political affiliation.
"People have become afraid of Vargas Llosa's economic policies," said Torres. "They look around for options, and they find this Japanese guy. They say, why not vote for him?"
