For his entire aborted 2024 reelection campaign, no issues threatened to hamstring President Joe Biden quite as much as the economy and immigration.
Analysis by Aaron Blake
Vice President Kamala Harris replacing Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee has significantly blunted those liabilities for Democrats.
A new poll this week piqued more than a few people’s interest. It came from the Financial Times and the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business, and it showed that about as many Americans preferred Harris on the economy (42 percent) as preferred Trump (41 percent). Such a finding was previously unthinkable, after many months of the economy dogging Biden.
That might overstate how much Harris has mitigated this issue for Democrats. But it’s surely somewhat.
Across three other recent polls to compare the two candidates on the issues — national polls from NPR-PBS-Marist College and Marquette University Law School and a swing-state poll from the New York Times and Siena College — Harris has trimmed between six and nine points off Biden’s previous deficits to Trump on the economy.
On immigration, she has trimmed between four and seven points off Biden’s previous deficits.
That said, she still trails Trump on these issues — by between three and 12 points on the economy, and by between five and 18 points on immigration. And a CNBC poll last week showed that about twice as many voters said they thought they’d be better off financially if Trump wins (40 percent) as said the same of Harris winning (21 percent).
That suggests these key issues remain a liability, just less of one.
Harris has redrawn the issue contrast rapidly on other issues, too. And she has built a bigger lead on some key ones that already favored Democrats.
The key one: Polls suggest she’s much better situated to take advantage of Democrats’ advantage on abortion rights. While Biden led Trump on that issue by around 10 points in previous Times-Siena and Marquette polls, Harris now leads by 19 points in the Times-Siena poll and 23 points in the Marquette poll.
Harris has also gained somewhat in these polls on another issues Democrats have sought to emphasize, democracy, as well as health care and Medicare and Social Security.
Harris now leads by double digits on each of these issues, which Democrats hope will offset their deficits on the economy and immigration.
It’s valid to ask why Harris suddenly over-performs Biden on these issues, particularly given that she has served alongside him for 3½ years. There is little indication thus far that her policies differ markedly from his, and she has yet to detail too many policies — though that is beginning to change this week.
But policy isn’t the only factor; so too is a candidate’s perceived ability to effectuate that policy and be a strong leader. It seems possible that, amid plenty of Democratic fretting about how Biden didn’t seem to get enough credit for strong, non-inflation economic indicators, many voters were dinging Biden because of their belief that he simply wasn’t up to the task — not necessarily because of specific outcomes.
And perhaps there was an opening for them backing off these concerns. Many voters, for instance, perceive their own finances or the economy in their area as being strong, even as they viewed the national economy much more negatively. That suggests this might not be as immediate and lingering an electoral concern as it might seem.
What’s clear is that, for whatever reason, Harris isn’t bogged down on these issues because of her connection with Biden. She might not be the “change” candidate, per se, but she benefits from a perception that she’d be better.
It’s not enough to give her an advantage on those two top-line issues (that Financial Times poll notwithstanding), but it is enough to give her more of a fighting chance — for now.
