The peak of Atlantic hurricane season has arrived, and right on schedule, a hurricane is bearing down on the Gulf Coast. Francine, upgraded from a tropical storm to a hurricane Tuesday night, is forecast to make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday.
and
The surge could bring as much as 5 to 10 feet of shoreline inundation in the low-lying parishes and bayous of southern Louisiana. Southern Cameron Parish has already begun mandatory evacuations.
Hurricane warnings are in effect from Cameron to Grand Isle in Louisiana and storm surge warnings cover the entire coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi. The surge warning includes Louisiana’s Vermilion Bay, Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain.
Farther inland, a tropical storm warning is in effect. The warning area includes New Orleans, which is also under a hurricane watch because of the possibility that the storm could shift just enough to the east to deliver hurricane-force winds there.
The worst of the storm is expected to arrive in southern Louisiana on Wednesday afternoon and evening, but conditions should deteriorate during the morning. By evening, harsh conditions are forecast to be spreading over the Interstate 10 corridor, including New Orleans and perhaps as far east as the Biloxi-Gulfport area of Mississippi.
Even after landfall, Francine’s remnant circulation will bring the threat of flooding rains in many parts of the Mid-South and as far north as eastern Missouri and southern Illinois. A few tornadoes are possible: Wednesday along the Gulf Coast, and farther inland across Alabama on Thursday.
Francine is poised to become the seventh hurricane to strike Louisiana since 2017. The storm’s formation on Monday marked the end of a silent period for Atlantic storms that spanned from Aug. 13 to Sept. 8. The last time that stretch featured no new named storms was in 1968.
How are Louisiana and Mississippi preparing for Francine?
Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry (R) declared a state of emergency Monday evening. “We want everyone in the state to be cautious and vigilant,” Landry said during a news conference. “We don’t want to downplay this event, but we also do not want people to panic.”
The Mississippi Emergency Management Agency deployed over 100,000 sandbags to southern parts of the state. Residents in coastal counties were being encouraged to pick up self-serve sandbags starting Tuesday morning.
Local states of emergency were declared along the Mississippi coast, including in Harrison and Jackson counties and the cities of Ocean Springs, Pascagoula and Gautier.
Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves (R) urged residents to complete all hurricane preparations by Tuesday evening. Schools across coastal Mississippi canceled classes for Wednesday and Thursday.
Where is the storm, and what’s the short-term forecast?
On Tuesday night, Francine’s peak winds increased from 65 to 75 mph, making it the fourth hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic season. It was centered about 350 miles southwest of Morgan City, La., and was moving northeast at 10 mph.
Its forward speed is expected to increase into Wednesday as it is scooped up by a dip in the jet stream.
The National Hurricane Center said Francine had been battling dry air since Monday night that had slowed its rate of intensification. It said that dry air could continue to affect the storm into Wednesday but that “the intensity forecast continues to call for steady to rapid strengthening."
When will Francine make landfall, how strong will it be and when will conditions start deteriorating along the coast?
Francine is expected to intensify over sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico between 85 and 88 degrees. That should help it become a high-end Category 1 hurricane ahead of landfall, with winds of 90 mph.
Conditions will deteriorate gradually along the coastline Wednesday morning and should go downhill more quickly after midday. Landfall could occur any time between the afternoon and evening hours.
An abrupt arrival of the most dangerous conditions will accompany the eyewall or ring of violent thunderstorms around Francine’s calm center.
The landfall zone — where the most dangerous storm conditions will occur — will probably be somewhere south of the area from Morgan City to Houma along Louisiana’s coast, although some minor shifts in the track are possible.
What are the impacts of greatest concern and where?
Surge is the most dangerous hazard of the storm. To the east of the center, onshore winds will push water ashore. The National Hurricane Center warns that up to 5 to 10 feet of surge are possible immediately to the right or east of the system’s eye. Considering that most of southern Louisiana is only a few feet above sea level, that could inundate coastal communities and leave a few settlements underwater. Lesser surge is anticipated to the left of the center, as well as toward the periphery of the system. A few feet of surge are even expected on Lake Pontchartrain.
At the coastline, winds of 80 to 90 mph are expected, with a few higher gusts possible. This will probably cause downed trees and wires, power outages and some minor structural damage. Even New Orleans and Lafayette are likely to see gusts topping 60 mph and the risk of downed trees and outages.
A general 4 to 8 inches of rain, with a few double-digit totals, is probable in central, southern and southeastern Louisiana as well as southern Mississippi. “This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding,” the National Hurricane Center wrote. There should be a sharp western cutoff to the left of the storms’s track, so far western Louisiana could see comparably little rain.
An isolated tornado is also possible in the spiral rain bands east of the center, particularly for places like New Orleans, Biloxi and Mobile. That threat will shift into Alabama on Thursday.
What areas will be affected by the storm after it moves inland?
Francine is forecast to move inland on Thursday and Friday, and winds will gradually diminish. Its northward progress is expected to slow to a crawl, stalling near or north of Memphis for much of Thursday evening through Friday night or even early Saturday.
That’s going to increase the risk of heavy rains in the Mississippi Valley as far north as southeastern Missouri and southern Illinois; a general 2 to 4 inches is expected, with locally higher amounts possible.
Are there any more threats after Francine?
There are two more areas to watch in the Atlantic, but neither looks to pose a threat to the United States.
One disturbance, which has a 30 percent chance of eventual development, is located over the central tropical Atlantic. The other, which has 80 percent odds of maturing, is located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Both should remain at sea.
Jason Samenow contributed to this report.
